Retirement Portfolio Survival Tool

If you’re approaching retirement, the question in most minds isn’t “how much have I got?” it’s “how much can I spend?”

Whilst nobody can guarantee the future of market returns, history is our only guide.

Our simulator below, uses UK historic return data, for stocks, treasury bonds, treasury bills (cash), and UK inflation from 1871-2020.

It also overlays current UK life expectancy, so if you’re trying to maximise your life (not your estate) you can see the probabilities.

You can compare different asset allocations, retirement ages, retirement lengths, and spending levels. And see what the historical success rates could have been.

Keep in mind that scenarios are shown before taxes, and investment costs.

This tool uses JavaScript, if it’s not functioning as you expect, please ensure JavaScript is enabled on your browser.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is a retirement portfolio survival calculator and how does it work?

A retirement portfolio survival calculator estimates how likely your retirement savings pot is to last through retirement spending needs. It models different market conditions using historical returns, inflation, and your chosen asset allocation. By testing many start years, it shows how often a plan would have survived, how often it ran out, and how outcomes change over time. This helps people planning retirement make more informed decisions about sustainable income.

2. How much can I safely spend each year in retirement?

A safe retirement spending level depends on your portfolio size, retirement length, inflation, and investment mix. Instead of relying on a single rule, test multiple withdrawal rates and compare survival outcomes. If a higher spending rate leads to frequent shortfalls, reducing spending or increasing savings can improve durability. Many retirees also plan flexible spending, reducing withdrawals after poor market years to improve long-term sustainability.

3. What is a sustainable retirement spending rate for UK retirees?

There is no universal rate that fits everyone, but sustainable retirement spending often sits in a range that balances income needs with portfolio longevity. UK retirees should account for inflation, life expectancy, taxes, and State Pension timing. A robust plan stress-tests spending against historical UK market returns and checks whether the strategy still works in difficult periods. Sustainable retirement spending is about resilience, not maximizing income in year one.

4. How should I approach investing for retirement across equities, bonds, and cash?

Investing for retirement usually means combining growth assets (equities) with stabilizers (bonds and cash). Equities can support long-term growth and inflation protection, while bonds and cash can reduce volatility and provide near-term spending liquidity. The right mix depends on your risk tolerance, spending flexibility, and retirement horizon. A balanced retirement investing strategy is one you can stick with during market downturns.

5. How does inflation affect retirement spending over a 30 to 40 year retirement?

Inflation is one of the biggest risks in retirement because it steadily reduces purchasing power. Even moderate inflation can materially raise required retirement spending over decades. A retirement plan should model inflation-adjusted withdrawals and assess whether portfolio growth can keep up in real terms. If inflation runs high, retirees may need spending flexibility, a diversified portfolio, or both to maintain financial security.

6. Can historical market data improve retirement planning confidence?

Yes, historical scenario testing can improve retirement planning confidence by showing how a strategy performed in many real market environments. It highlights best-case, typical, and worst-case paths, helping retirees understand trade-offs before committing to a spending level. While past performance cannot guarantee future results, scenario analysis is still a practical tool for setting realistic retirement spending expectations and building a more robust plan.